Avalia??o da rela??o seca/produtividade agrícola em cenário de mudan?as climáticas

摘要

This study investigates the relationship between crop yields and drought in the state of Minas Gerais for of climate change scenarios. Climate changes have warned due to possible increases in meteorological extremes worldwide and the uncertainties on how the climatic events might change the environment and affect world agricultural production in the future. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM model daily weather data projected for the 2008 to 2020 period, based on the A1B scenario, was used. The methodology of the agroecological zone (AEZ) to estimate the future maize yield was used. The index of the Z Palmer drought and the estimated productivity by AEZ methodology were compared by a linear correlation model. The performance of the models was verified by the statistic parameters: coefficient of determination (r2), the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Willmott agreement index (d). The results of the Willmott agreement index ranged from 0.48 to 0.90 and r2 presented low values. However, the productivity estimated by AEZ methodology projected greater maize yield losses due to water supplies limitations for the agricultural years of 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2014/2015 and 2018/2019 for the mesoregions of Triangulo/Alto Paranaíba, Central Mineira and Jequitinhonha.