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Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Fully Data Driven Deep Neural Network

机译:利用完全数据驱动的深度神经网络预测北极海冰浓度

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摘要

The Arctic sea ice is an important indicator of the progress of global warming and climate change. Prediction of Arctic sea ice concentration has been investigated by many disciplines and predictions have been made using a variety of methods. Deep learning (DL) using large training datasets, also known as deep neural network, is a fast-growing area in machine learning that promises improved results when compared to traditional neural network methods. Arctic sea ice data, gathered since 1978 by passive microwave sensors, may be an appropriate input for training DL models. In this study, a large Arctic sea ice dataset was employed to train a deep neural network and this was then used to predict Arctic sea ice concentration, without incorporating any physical data. We compared the results of our methods quantitatively and qualitatively to results obtained using a traditional autoregressive (AR) model, and to a compilation of results from the Sea Ice Prediction Network, collected using a diverse set of approaches. Our DL-based prediction methods outperformed the AR model and yielded results comparable to those obtained with other models.
机译:北极海冰是全球变暖和气候变化进程的重要指标。许多学科已经研究了北极海冰浓度的预测,并且已经使用多种方法进行了预测。使用大型训练数据集(也称为深度神经网络)的深度学习(DL)是机器学习中快速发展的领域,与传统的神经网络方法相比,它有望带来更好的结果。自1978年以来由无源微波传感器收集的北极海冰数据可能是训练DL模型的适当输入。在这项研究中,使用了一个庞大的北极海冰数据集来训练一个深层神经网络,然后将其用于预测北极海冰浓度,而无需合并任何物理数据。我们定量和定性地比较了我们方法的结果,使用传统自回归(AR)模型获得的结果以及使用多种方法收集的海冰预测网络的结果汇编。我们基于DL的预测方法胜过AR模型,并获得了与其他模型可比的结果。

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