The Comparison on for Traffic Accident Forecasting in Long and Short Period Based on Multi-layer Recursive Forecasting Method

摘要

The multi-layer recursive forecasting method is used on road traffic accident forecasting in this study. We suggested the factors as density of population, GDP per capita, highway passenger transport, highway freight volume, highway mileage, density of road network, amount of vehicle, amount of cars per capita and environmental factors is selected by MATLAB in forecasting model. The model including autoregression item and the model including autoregression item and environmental factors is proposed. By changing the forecasting period, the forecasting results in years and months are acquired and analyzed. We conclude that the forecasting accuracy in short period is higher than in long period by comparing with results of long and short period.