Ex Ante Analysis of New Forage Alternatives for Farms with Dual-Purpose Cattle in Peru, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua

摘要

Theobjectivewastoperformanex-anteeconomicevaluationofnew,legume-basedforagealternativesavailabletofarmersinLatinAmericantropicallowlands.ThesealternativesincludedgrassesoftheBrachiariagenusandthelegumesStylosanthesguianensis,Cratyliaargentea,andArachispintoi.Casestudies,involvingfarmersparticipatingintheCIAT-ledTropilecheConsortiaconvenedbyILRI,wereconductedintheforestmarginsofPucallpa(Peru)andinthehillsidesofthedrytropicsofEsparza(CostaRica)andEsquipulas(Nicaragua).AlinearprogrammingfarmmodeldevelopedbyCIATtomaximizeincomewasusedforthisanalysis.Animalmanagementparameterswerebasedonfarmaveragesateachreferencesiteevaluatedsothattheyrepresentedcurrentmanagementconditions.Similarly,themodelincorporatedthepricesofinputsandproductstypicalofeachcountry.Aconstantherdsizewasassumedforallalternativesevaluated.Productioncostsperkilogramofmilkwereestimatedasthemaximumexpressionofcompetitiveness,usingthreecowproductivityparameters:thecurrentaverageproductionperlactation(800kginPeru,1,000kginNicaragua,and1,350kginCostaRica);andtwopostulatedparameters:1,500kg/lactationand2,000kg/lactation.Forallforageoptions,keyfactorsanalyzedwere(1)milkproductioncostsresultingfromimplementingeachforagealternative;(2)theinvestmentrequiredtoestablisheachoption,assumingthesamenumberofmilkingcowsandherdfertility;(3)thefeasibilityofobtainingcreditwithalocalbanktoinvestinaforagealternative;and(4)thepercentageofpastureareaonthefarmfreedforotherusesasaresultofestablishingoneoftheforagealternatives.ResultsindicatedthattheforagealternativesevaluatedsignificantlyimprovedthecompetitivenessofdualpurposefarmsinthehillsidesofNicaraguaandCostaRica,reducingthecostofproducingmilkbetween13%and37%withincreasedstockingrates,releasingupto36%ofareaallocatedtopastures.However,undercurrentcommercialbankingconditions(realinterestratesof13%inCostaRicaand18%inNicaraguawithpaybackperiodsof5years),theimplementationoftheoptionsevaluatedwerenotfinanciallyviableexceptfortheestablishmentofCratylawithsugarcanefordry-seasonfeedingandStylosanthesforpre-weanedcalves.Foralloptionstobeimplementedwithcommercialcredit,alongerpaybackperiodwasneeded(8-10years)andlowerrealinterestrates(5-10%).ThecaseoftheforestmarginsofPucallpa,wasdifferent,asnoneoftheforageoptionsevaluated,exceptStylosanthesforpre-weanedcalves,improvedthecompetitivenessoffarmsundercurrentmanagementandproductionconditionsduetolowmilkyieldspercowandlowproportionofherdinmilk,whichincreaseddepreciationcost/cowtolevelswhichwerenotviable.Inaddition,Pucallpahasanexcesssupplyofforagebiomassfromareducedherdinventoryduringthe80sandalimitedfreshmilkmarketwhichmakesadoptionofimprovedforageslowattractivebyfarmers.