首页> 外文期刊>Lesnicky casopis >Lasch-Born, P., Reyer, Ch., Suckow, F., Fran?ois, L., Ceulemans, R.: Combining multiple statistical methods to evaluate the performance of process-based vegetation models across three forest stands Cent. Eur. For. J., 63(2017) 153–172 |
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Lasch-Born, P., Reyer, Ch., Suckow, F., Fran?ois, L., Ceulemans, R.: Combining multiple statistical methods to evaluate the performance of process-based vegetation models across three forest stands Cent. Eur. For. J., 63(2017) 153–172 |

机译:Lasch-Born,P.,Reyer,Ch。,Suckow,F.,Fran?ois,L.,Ceulemans,R .:结合多种统计方法,以评估三个森林林分中基于过程的植被模型的性能。欧元。对于。 J.,63(2017)153–172 |

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Process-based vegetation models are crucial tools to better understand biosphere-atmosphere exchanges and ecophysiological responses to climate change. In this contribution the performance of two global dynamic vegetation models, i.e. CARAIB and ISBACC, and one stand-scale forest model, i.e. 4C, was compared to long-term observed net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) time series from eddy covariance monitoring stations at three old-grown European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forest stands. Residual analysis, wavelet analysis and singular spectrum analysis were used beside conventional scalar statistical measures to assess model performance with the aim of defining future targets for model improvement. We found that the most important errors for all three models occurred at the edges of the observed NEE distribution and the model errors were correlated with environmental variables on a daily scale. These observations point to possible projection issues under more extreme future climate conditions. Recurrent patterns in the residuals over the course of the year were linked to the approach to simulate phenology and physiological evolution during leaf development and senescence. Substantial model errors occurred on the multi-annual time scale, possibly caused by the lack of inclusion of management actions and disturbances. Other crucial processes defined were the forest structure and the vertical light partitioning through the canopy. Further, model errors were shown not to be transmitted from one time scale to another. We proved that models should be evaluated across multiple sites, preferably using multiple evaluation methods, to identify processes that request reconsideration.
机译:基于过程的植被模型是更好地了解生物圈-大气交换和对气候变化的生态生理反应的关键工具。在此贡献中,将两个全球动态植被模型(即CARAIB和ISBACC)和一个标准规模森林模型(即4C)的性能与来自涡度协方差监测站的长期观测到的净生态系统碳交换(NEE)时间序列进行了比较。三个古老的欧洲山毛榉(Fagus sylvatica L.)森林林分。在常规标量统计量测度之外,还使用残差分析,小波分析和奇异频谱分析来评估模型性能,以定义模型改进的未来目标。我们发现,对于这三个模型,最重要的错误发生在观察到的NEE分布的边缘,并且模型错误与日尺度上的环境变量相关。这些观察结果指出了在更极端的未来气候条件下可能出现的投影问题。一年中残留物中的重复模式与模拟叶片发育和衰老期间的物候和生理进化的方法有关。在多年的时间尺度上发生了重大的模型错误,这可能是由于缺乏管理行为和干扰造成的。定义的其他关键过程是森林结构和穿过树冠的垂直光分配。此外,模型误差显示为不会从一个时标传递到另一个时标。我们证明,应该在多个站点上对模型进行评估,最好使用多种评估方法,以识别需要重新考虑的流程。

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