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Epidemic mitigation via awareness propagation in communication networks: the role of time scales

机译:通过通信网络中的意识传播来减轻流行病:时间尺度的作用

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The participation of individuals in multi-layer networks allows for feedback between network layers, opening new possibilities to mitigate epidemic spreading. For instance, the spread of a biological disease such as Ebola in a physical contact network may trigger the propagation of the information related to this disease in a communication network, e.g. an online social network. The information propagated in the communication network may increase the awareness of some individuals, resulting in them avoiding contact with their infected neighbors in the physical contact network, which might protect the population from the infection. In this work, we aim to understand how the time scale γ of the information propagation (speed that information is spread and forgotten) in the communication network relative to that of the epidemic spread (speed that an epidemic is spread and cured) in the physical contact network influences such mitigation using awareness information. We begin by proposing a model of the interaction between information propagation and epidemic spread, taking into account the relative time scale γ. We analytically derive the average fraction of infected nodes in the meta-stable state for this model (i) by developing an individual-based mean-field approximation (IBMFA) method and (ii) by extending the microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA). We show that when the time scale γ of the information spread relative to the epidemic spread is large, our IBMFA approximation is better compared to MMCA near the epidemic threshold, whereas MMCA performs better when the prevalence of the epidemic is high. Furthermore, we find that an optimal mitigation exists that leads to a minimal fraction of infected nodes. The optimal mitigation is achieved at a non-trivial relative time scale γ, which depends on the rate at which an infected individual becomes aware. Contrary to our intuition, information spread too fast in the communication network could reduce the mitigation effect. Finally, our finding has been validated in the real-world two-layer network obtained from the location-based social network Brightkite.
机译:个人参与多层网络可以在网络层之间进行反馈,从而为减轻流行病的传播开辟了新的可能性。例如,诸如埃博拉病毒之类的生物疾病在物理接触网络中的传播可能会触发与该疾病有关的信息在通信网络中的传播,例如传播。在线社交网络。在通信网络中传播的信息可能会提高某些个体的意识,从而导致他们避免与物理接触网络中与其感染邻居的接触,从而可以保护人们免受感染。在这项工作中,我们的目的是了解通信网络中信息传播(信息传播和忘记的速度)相对于流行病传播(传播速度和治愈速度)的时间尺度γ联络网络使用意识信息来影响这种缓解。我们首先考虑到相对时间尺度γ,提出一个信息传播与流行病传播之间相互作用的模型。我们通过分析基于个体的平均场近似(IBMFA)方法和(ii)通过扩展微观马尔可夫链方法(MMCA),分析得出该模型处于亚稳定状态的感染节点的平均分数。我们表明,当信息传播相对于流行病传播的时间尺度γ较大时,与流行病阈值附近的MMCA相比,我们的IBMFA近似值更好,而当流行病流行较高时,MMCA的性能更好。此外,我们发现存在最佳的缓解措施,可以使感染节点的感染率降至最低。最佳缓解是在一个相对重要的相对时间尺度γ上实现的,该相对时间尺度γ取决于被感染个体的感知速度。与我们的直觉相反,在通信网络中传播太快的信息可能会降低缓解效果。最后,我们的发现已在从基于位置的社交网络Brightkite获得的现实世界两层网络中得到验证。

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