Rain attenuation prediction model for satellite communications based on the Météo-France ensemble prediction system PEARP

摘要

This paper presents anexample of the usage of ensemble weather forecasting for the control ofsatellite-based communication systems. Satellite communication systems becomeincreasingly sensitive to weather conditions as their operating frequencyincreases to avoid electromagnetic spectrum congestion and enhance theircapacity. In the microwave domain, electromagnetic waves that are conveyinginformation are attenuated between the satellite and Earth terminals in thepresence of hydrometeors (mostly rain drops and more marginally clouddroplets). To maintain a reasonable level of service availability, even withadverse weather conditions considering the scarcity of amplification power inspacecraft, fade mitigation techniques have been developed. The general ideabehind those fade mitigation techniques is to reroute, change thecharacteristics or reschedule the transmission in the case of too-significantpropagation impairments. For some systems, a scheduling on how to use thosemechanisms some hours in advance is required, making assumptions on thefuture weather conditions affecting the link. To this aim the use of weatherforecast data to control the attenuation compensation mechanisms seems ofparticular interest to maximize the performances of the communication linksand hence of the associated economic value. A model to forecast theattenuation on the link based on forecasted rainfall amounts fromdeterministic or ensemble weather forecasting is presented and validated. Ina second phase, the model's application to a simplified telecommunicationsystem allows us to demonstrate the valuable contribution of weatherforecasting in the system's availability optimization or in the system'sthroughput optimization. The benefit of using ensemble forecasts rather thandeterministic ones is demonstrated as well.