A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems forrainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinctionbetween warning models and warning systems. According to this framework anearly warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring andwarning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paperproposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of anoriginal approach, called the "event, duration matrix,performance"?(EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps:identification and analysis of the events, i.e.,?landslide events andwarning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases;definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elementsreport the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events inrelation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes;evaluation of the early warning model performance by means ofperformance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. Duringthe first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide andwarning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, bymeans of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analystcomputes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columnsequal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events,respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of modelperformance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, whichneed to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warningmodel. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaPmethod are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data fromthe municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).
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