Methodical approaches to a choice of strategic directions of investment

摘要

In work strategic directions of investment of oil refining branch of Russia are defined: reconstruction of existing catalytic cracking; working out of new updating of process of deep hydroclearing of heavy vacuum distillate; improving processes coking and coke calcinations at operational; intensification of the process of visbreaking.The model of working out of investment strategy of the oil refining enterprise which unlike existing, includes the identification of the main risk-contributing factor and the account of industrial and financial potentials of the enterprise is offered. As a result of use of the given model quantitative level of industrial and financial potentials of three largest oil refining companies of Russia is defined: Open Society “LUKOIL”, Open Society “NK Rosneft”, Open Society “ANK Bashneft”, allowed to reveal, that only Open Society “LUKOIL” company is capable to realize the allocated strategic directions of investment.The modified formula Bayes, allowed to define an expected damage from realization of strategic directions of investment and, by comparison of size of damage and size of potentials of the enterprises is used, to choose the optimal directions of investment for each company