Factors Affecting on the Price of Gold on Global Markets and Its Impact on the Price of Gold in Iran Market (Incorporation of Dynamic System Pattern and Econometric)

摘要

The financial crisis of 2008 caused that the gold price forecasting to be more important than was in the past. Thementioned importance is not just to earn more profits from gold speculative, but is because of the role that goldplays in the economic thermometer.In this paper, has tried to using the corporation of dynamic system patterns and econometric to be discussed awide range of variables affecting the price of gold and in addition to analyzing the global gold price, study it’simpact on the gold price in Iran market. It seems that in Iran the exchange rate plays an important role in thisregard. Also using dynamic simulation for a ten years period, means from 2015 to 2025 has forecasted the priceof gold on global markets and Iran market. The results indicate a gradual decline in the gold price. The realitytesting of model has examined by scenario plan of stopping the federal’s expansionary policies that the resultsindicate the validity of the model.