IMPACTS OF CARBON TARIFFS ON CHINA,S ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND CARBON INTENSITY: SIMULATION ANALYSIS USING A DYNAMIC CGE MODEL

摘要

China is one of America's biggest trade partners, so its economy and society will be influenced by the carbon tariffs policy, which will be implemented by the USA in 2020. A multi-sectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to investigate the impacts of the carbon tariffs on the trade structure, output structure, energy structure, and carbon intensity in China. Simulations showed that the carbon tariffs will promote China's exports to other countries or regions instead of the USA, where the export ratio of low-carbon sectors will increase, whereas the export ratios will decline for some energy-intensive sectors and those that are highly dependent on exports to the USA. Carbon tariffs will have very slight inhibitory impacts on China's foreign trade scale and dependence. The output share of some sectors such as energy-intensive and upstream sectors will decrease, whereas the output share of some manufacturing sectors will increase. The proportion of coal consumption will decline dramatically, whereas the proportion of clean power consumption will increase, thereby improving China's energy consumption structure by reducing China's carbon intensity to some extent. Some policy implications that emerge from our study results are discussed.