Decomposing Industrial Energy-Related CO₂ Emissions in Yunnan Province, China: Switching to Low-Carbon Economic Growth

摘要

As a less-developed province that has been chosen to be part of a low-carbon pilot project, Yunnan faces the challenge of maintaining rapid economic growth while reducing CO₂ emissions. Understanding the drivers behind CO₂ emission changes can help decouple economic growth from CO₂ emissions. However, previous studies on the drivers of CO₂ emissions in less-developed regions that focus on both production and final demand have been seldom conducted. In this study, a structural decomposition analysis-logarithmic mean Divisia index (SDA-LMDI) model was developed to find the drivers behind the CO₂ emission changes during 1997–2012 in Yunnan, based on times series energy consumption and input-output data. The results demonstrated that the sharp rise in exports of high-carbon products from the metal processing and electricity sectors increased CO₂ emissions, during 2002–2007. Although increased investments in the construction sector also increased CO₂ emissions, during 2007–2012, the carbon intensity of Yunnan’s economy decreased substantially because the province vigorously developed hydropower and improved energy efficiency in energy-intensive sectors. Construction investments not only carbonized the GDP composition, but also formed a carbon-intensive production structure because of high-carbon supply chains. To further mitigate CO₂ emissions in Yunnan, measures should promote the development and application of clean energy and the formation of consumption-based economic growth.