CO 2 Emissions from China’s Power Industry: Scenarios and Policies for 13th Five-Year Plan

摘要

The extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model has been applied to analyzing the relationship between CO 2 emissions from power industry and the influential factors for the period from 1997 to 2020. The two groups found through partial least square (PLS) regularity test show two important areas for CO 2 emissions reduction from the power industry: economic activity and low-carbon electric technology. Moreover, considering seven influential factors (economic activity, population, urbanization level, industrial structure, electricity intensity, generation structure, and energy intensity) that affect the power CO 2 emissions and the practical situation in the power sector, possible development scenarios for the 13th Five-Year Plan period were designed, and the corresponding CO 2 emissions from the power sector for different scenarios were estimated. Through scenario analysis, the potential mitigation of emissions from power industry can be determined. Moreover, the CO 2 emissions reduction rates in the different scenarios indicate the possible low-carbon development directions and policies for the power industry during the period of the 13th Five Year Plan.