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Methods for Risk-Based Planning of O&M of Wind Turbines

机译:基于风险的风电机组运维计划方法

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In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules based on observed variables.
机译:为了使风能更具竞争力,必须减少运营和维护的大笔费用。可以基于基于风险的方法做出使预期成本最小化的一致决策。已经为石油和天然气结构的维护计划实施了此类方法,但是对于海上风力涡轮机,条件不同,需要相应地调整方法。本文概述了解决决策问题的各种方法:具有基于观测变量的决策规则的方法,具有基于故障概率的决策规则的方法,基于有限内存影响图的方法以及基于局部记忆的图的方法可观察的马尔可夫决策过程。具有基于观测变量的决策规则的方法易于使用,但是在做出决策时只能考虑最近的观测。其他方法可以考虑更多信息,特别是基于马尔可夫决策过程的方法非常灵活,准确。案例研究表明,与基于观察变量的决策规则相比,基于故障概率的马尔可夫决策过程和决策规则具有同等的优势,并且成本更低。

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