An analysis of interprovincial migration in Vietnam from 1989 to 2009

摘要

Background: In Vietnam, reports either present general patterns of internal migration or the migration characteristics of specific subgroups. Reports are often based on small numbers and do not examine the relationships between socioeconomic factors and migration. Different reports classify migrant populations differently, presenting difficulties for researchers and policymakers to gain a consistent picture of migration (particularly of interprovincial migration) and limiting the ability of policymakers to plan services appropriately. This study describes the characteristics of all migrants in Vietnam, focusing on interprovincial migrants, and examines age and sex trends and correlations among in-migration, urbanization, and individual income.Methods: We analyzed data from the 15% sample survey in the 2009 Population and Housing Census, the 3% sample in the 1999 national census, the 5% sample in the 1989 national census, and selected data from the 2008 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey. Logistic regression was used to identify socioeconomic factors related to migration.Results: In 2009, of 6.7 million internal migrants (approximately 6.5% of the total population), 3.4 million were interprovincial migrants. Three notable trends were observed between 1989 and 2009: (i) the total population is characterized by increasing proportions of migrants; (ii) the proportion of female migrants is growing; and (iii) the average age of migrants is decreasing. Socioeconomic factors related to interprovincial migration include provincial economic status (monthly income per capita: OR = 4.62, p = 0.005) and urbanization (proportion of urban population: OR = 3.47, p = 0.019), suggesting that provinces with high monthly income per capita and urbanization are more likely to have higher rates of in-migration.Conclusion: These findings reflect the effects of unequally growing labor markets in Vietnamese provinces on migration, and are suggestive of infrastructure improvements and public service needs in these areas. Analysis of migration can provide useful information for planning health and social services and for policymaking for national economic development.