An Interplay between westerly and easterly wind bursts shaping El Ni?o development in 2014-2016

摘要

At the beginning of 2014, many in the scientific community anticipated that a moderate to strong El Ni?o could develop by year-end (e.g. NOAA CPC, 2014; ECMWF, 2014; NASA, 2014), which was supported by satellite observations and climate model forecasts. However, the event’s progression quickly stalled, and formally the warm event did not qualify as El Ni?o (Fig. 1b).