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Arctic sea ice seasonal-to-decadal variability and long-term change

机译:北极海冰季节到年代的变化和长期变化

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The large-scale loss of Arctic sea ice in recent decades is one of the most prominent indicators of the ongoing global climate change. This derives from three main reasons. First, climate change is amplified in the Arctic (“Arctic amplification”, e.g. Pithan et al. (2013)), so consequences of changes in the global-mean climate are more readily observed at high latitudes compared to middle and lower latitudes. Second, while many observables change gradually with global mean climate, Arctic sea ice is among those observables that might eventually cross a binary threshold from “existing” to “non-existing”, which amplifies the perception of the underlying gradual trend. And third, as a consequence, changes in “Arctic sea ice coverage” are easier to grasp and communicate to a general public than changes in more abstract metrics such as “global mean temperature”.
机译:近几十年来,北极海冰的大规模流失是全球气候变化的最显着指标之一。这源于三个主要原因。首先,气候变化在北极被放大(例如,Pithan等人,“北极放大”,(2013年)),因此与中低纬度地区相比,高纬度地区更容易观察到全球平均气候变化的后果。其次,尽管许多可观测物随着全球平均气候而逐渐变化,但北极海冰却可能最终跨越从“现有”到“不存在”的二元阈值,从而扩大了对潜在渐进趋势的认识。第三,其结果是,“北极海冰覆盖率”的变化比“全球平均温度”等抽象指标的变化更容易掌握和传达给公众。

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