A note on nonparametric inference for species variety with Gibbs-type priors

摘要

A Bayesian nonparametric methodology has been recently introduced for estimating, given an initial observed sample, the species variety featured by an additional unobserved sample of size $m$. Although this methodology led to explicit posterior distributions under the general framework of Gibbs-type priors, there are situations of practical interest where $m$ is required to be very large and the computational burden for evaluating these posterior distributions makes impossible their concrete implementation. In this paper we present a solution to this problem for a large class of Gibbs-type priors which encompasses the two parameter Poisson-Dirichlet prior and, among others, the normalized generalized Gamma prior. Our solution relies on the study of the large $m$ asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution of the number of new species in the additional sample. In particular we introduce a simple characterization of the limiting posterior distribution in terms of a scale mixture with respect to a suitable latent random variable; this characterization, combined with the adaptive rejection sampling, leads to derive a large $m$ approximation of any feature of interest from the exact posterior distribution. We show how to implement our results through a simulation study and the analysis of a dataset in linguistics.