Bayesian Technique for the Selection of Probability Distributions for Frequency Analyses of Hydrometeorological Extremes

摘要

Frequency analysis of hydrometeorological extremes plays an important role in the design of hydraulic structures. A multitude of distributions have been employed for hydrological frequency analysis, and more than one distribution is often found to be adequate for frequency analysis. The current method for selecting the best fitted distributions are not so objective. Using different kinds of constraints, entropy theory was employed in this study to derive five generalized distributions for frequency analysis. These distributions are the generalized gamma (GG) distribution, generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2), Halphen type A distribution (Hal-A), Halphen type B distribution (Hal-B), and Halphen type inverse B (Hal-IB) distribution. The Bayesian technique was employed to objectively select the optimal distribution. The method of selection was tested using simulation as well as using extreme daily and hourly rainfall data from the Mississippi. The results showed that the Bayesian technique was able to select the best fitted distribution, thus providing a new way for model selection for frequency analysis of hydrometeorological extremes.