Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50?km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450?000?km2 circa 2000 to 1440?000?±?65?000?km2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50?km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304?000?±?33?000?km2 of new urban land to be developed within 50?km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100?000?±?25?000?km2, is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies.
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