Photovoltaics: between a bright outlook and uncertainty

摘要

AbstractThere is “breakneck” growth in the global photovoltaics market, with the global market of photovoltaic cells growing by about 47% in 2009, 72% in 2010, and 74% in 2011. Global installed capacity in 2011 was three times more than 2009. Italy and Germany are leading with a 57% share of the global market. Costs are dropping rapidly and photovoltaic (PV) power generation is an attractive option for investors. Increasing support of European Union (EU) for renewable energy in general and PV aims to diversify sources of energy and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, on nuclear and on imported energy. Energy security is an important dimension for the EU. Almost all experts agree that there is no single technology that will provide a sustainable global supply of cleaner energy. However, the scale, the cost of the change needed and supporting policy and legislation are often subject to debate. High costs could be counterbalanced by economic yields from new businesses, the creation of new jobs, and economic growth from clean energy investments. The current situation in which Germany and Italy account for almost 2/3 of global PV market growth and, also, the strong reliance on supporting policies is unstable. If PV power generation is to continue growing, the balance of development will have to shift to new markets – both inside and outside of Europe. Fixed price policy is a game to be played with caution. This article highlights examples of Spain, Italy, and Germany that illustrate that without robust policy the system can be easily misbalanced. When – or even if – photovoltaic power does become cheap enough to compete without subsidies against more established energy sources, depends upon a number of uncertainties, including the continuing political will to provide financial support, and how readily developing nations such as China and India embrace renewable energies.