Risk Analysis of the River Bank Washout and Flooding of the Areas

摘要

Quantitative assessment and forecasting of one or another hydrological phenomenon is important for estimation of vulnerability of natural riverside. Mechanism of riverside destruction by water is considered in the represented work as random process, which is depended both on influence of flow speed and on riverside resistance. As the indicator of this process against such influence is taken riverside characteristic - vulnerability, for determination of which is used a well-known model of the theory of reliability, called "load-strength" model. Proceeding from this fact a result obtained via theoretical formalization in the form of represented formula is considered at this stage as approximation and time factor should be taken into account in the modeling process that will be a step forward in relation to current reality.