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A multi-model ensemble method that combines imperfect models through learning

机译:通过学习结合不完美模型的多模型集成方法

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In the current multi-model ensemble approach climate model simulations are combined a posteriori. In the method of this study the models in the ensemble exchange information during simulations and learn from historical observations to combine their strengths into a best representation of the observed climate. The method is developed and tested in the context of small chaotic dynamical systems, like the Lorenz 63 system. Imperfect models are created by perturbing the standard parameter values. Three imperfect models are combined into one super-model, through the introduction of connections between the model equations. The connection coefficients are learned from data from the unperturbed model, that is regarded as the truth. The main result of this study is that after learning the super-model is a very good approximation to the truth, much better than each imperfect model separately. These illustrative examples suggest that the super-modeling approach is a promising strategy to improve weather and climate simulations.
机译:在当前的多模型集成方法中,气候模型模拟是后验结合的。在这项研究的方法中,集合中的模型在模拟过程中交换信息,并从历史观察中学习,以将其优势结合到所观察到的气候的最佳表示中。该方法是在小型混沌动力学系统(如Lorenz 63系统)的环境中开发和测试的。通过干扰标准参数值来创建不完美的模型。通过引入模型方程之间的联系,将三个不完美的模型组合为一个超级模型。连接系数是从不受干扰的模型的数据中获悉的,这被认为是事实。这项研究的主要结果是,在学习了超级模型之后,它非常接近真实性,比分别使用每个不完美模型更好。这些说明性的例子表明,超级建模方法是改善天气和气候模拟的一种有前途的策略。

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