Guidelines for constructing allometric models for the prediction of woody biomass: How many individuals to harvest?

摘要

The recent development of biomass markets and carbon trading has led to increasing interest in obtaining accurate estimates of woody biomass production. Aboveground woody biomass ( B ) is often estimated indirectly using allometric models, where representative individuals are harvested and weighed, and regression analyses used to generalise the relationship between individual mass and more readily measured non‐destructive attributes such as plant height and stem diameter ( D ). To satisfy regulatory requirements and/or to provide market confidence, allometric models must be based on sufficient data to ensure predictions are accurate, whilst at the same time being practically and financially achievable. Using computer resampling experiments and allometric models of the form B = aD~(b) the trade‐off between increasing the sample size of individuals to construct an allometric model and the accuracy of the resulting biomass predictions was assessed. A range of algorithms for selecting individuals across the stem diameter size‐class range were also explored. The results showed marked variability across allometric models in the required number of individuals to satisfy a given level of precision. A range of 17–95 individuals were required to achieve biomass predictions with a standard deviation within 5% of the mean for the best performing stem diameter selection algorithm, while 25–166 individuals were required for the poorest. This variability arises from (a) inherent uncertainty in the relationship between diameter and biomass across allometric models, and (b) differences between the diameter size‐class distribution of individuals used to construct a model, and the diameter size‐class distribution of the population to which the model is applied. Allometric models are a key component of quantifying land‐based sequestration activities, but despite their importance little attention has been given to ensuring the methods used in their development will yield sufficiently accurate biomass predictions. The results from this study address this gap and will be of use in guiding the development of new allometric models; in assessing the suitability of existing allometric models; and in facilitating the estimation of uncertainty in biomass predictions.