Road traffic fatalities in Qatar, Jordan and the UAE: estimates using regression analysis and the relationship with economic growth

摘要

Smeed’s equation is a widely used model for prediction of traffic fatalities but has been found inadequate for use in developing countries. We applied regression analysis to time-series data on vehicles, population and traffic fatalities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan and Qatar. The data were fitted to exponential models for fatality prediction, producing an average absolute error of 20.9% for Qatar, 10.9% for Jordan and 5.5% for the UAE. We found a strong linear relationship between gross domestic product and fatality rate.