Association of Air Pollution and Mortality of Acute Lower Respiratory Tract Infections in Shenyang, China: A Time Series Analysis Study

摘要

Background: We aimed to evaluate the risk factors of the daily mortality associated with air pollution causing acute lower respiratory tract infections. Methods: We applied a short time series analysis to the air pollution record, meteorological data and 133 non-accidental death data in Shengyang, China, in 2013-2015. After controlling the seasonality, day of week and weather conditions, the group employed an over-dispersed Possion generalized addictive model to discuss the associations among different variables, then performed the stratified?analysis according to?age, gender, and season. Results: Mean concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters of 10 μm (PM10) and 2.5 μm (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) were 122.4, 74.8, 79.4, 47.7, and 86.2 μg/m3, respectively. An increase of 10 μg/m3 in the 8-day moving average concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, and O3 corresponded to 0.18% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10%, 0.26%), 0.21% (95% CI: 0.11%, 0.31%), 0.16% (95% CI: 0.04%, 0.30%), 0.43% (95% CI: 0.07%, 0.90%), and 0.10% (95% CI: -0.08%, 0.31%) increase in the daily mortality. The effects of air pollution lasted 9 days (lag 0-8), and they were more statistically significant in the elderly than in other age groups. Conclusion: These findings clarified the burden of air pollution on the morbidity of acute lower respiratory tract infections and emphasized the urgency of the control and prevention of air pollution and respiratory diseases in China.