Temporal and elevation trends in rainfall erosivity on a 149 km2 watershed in a semi-arid region of the American Southwest

摘要

Abstract Temporal changes in rainfall erosivity can be expected to occur with changing climate, and because rainfall amounts are known to be in part of a function of elevation, erosivity can be expected to be influenced by elevation as well. This is particularly true in mountainous regions such as are found over much of the western United States. The objective of this study was to identify temporal and elevation trends in rainfall erosivity on a 149 km2 (58 miles2) watershed in a semi-arid region of southeastern Arizona. Data from 84 rain gages for the years 1960–2012 at elevations ranging from 1231 to 1644 m (4038–5394 ft) were used in the analyses. The average annual erosivity over the watershed as a whole was 1104 {MJ} mm ha?1 h?1 yr?1 (65 hundreds of foot ton inch acre?1 h?1 yr?1), and ranged from approximately 950 to 1225 {MJ} mm ha?1 h?1 yr?1 (56–72 hundreds of foot ton inch acre?1 h?1 yr?1), with a statistical trend showing greater erosivity at the higher elevations. No statistically significant temporal changes in annual or summer erosivities were found. This result stands in contrast to recent modeling studies of runoff and erosion in the area based on downscaled {GCM} information that project significant levels of erosivity changes over coming decades. These results are consistent with known orographic rainfall effects, but contrast with recent studies that presented projections of significant trends of increasing erosivity in the future based on downscaled {GCM} outputs for the area. The results illustrate the need for testing and developing improved techniques to evaluate future erosion scenarios for purposes of making targeted soil conservation decisions.