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Regional Fertility Transition in India: An Analysis Using Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios

机译:印度的区域生育转换:使用综合平价进步比率的分析

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This paper examines various aspects of regional fertility transition in India. Using nationally representative data from three rounds of National Family Health Surveys (NFHSs) conducted in India, we compare and contrast fertility patterns in six regions of India for the period between 1977 and 2004. To study the fertility patterns, we use synthetic parity progression ratios which, besides providing estimates for average lifetime parity, also allow for decomposition of lifetime parity by birth order. The paper also examines changes in birth intervals over time and across the six regions. The results confirm the persistence of regional differences in fertility. However, in all regions fertility is declining and it is possible that fertility rates will converge in the near future. The main reason for fertility decline in all regions is the reduction in third- and higher-order births. There has not been any significant decline in first and second births, even in regions with low fertility. In addition to the discussion of the substantive results, the paper also comments on the quality of NFHS data.
机译:本文研究了印度区域生育力转型的各个方面。使用在印度进行的三轮全国家庭健康调查(NFHS)中具有国家代表性的数据,我们比较和对比了印度六个地区在1977年至2004年之间的生育率模式。为了研究生育率模式,我们使用合成的均等进展率除了提供对平均寿命平价的估算外,还可以按出生顺序分解寿命平价。本文还研究了六个时间段内出生间隔随时间的变化。结果证实了生育率区域差异的持续存在。但是,在所有地区,生育率都在下降,而且在不久的将来,生育率可能会趋于一致。所有地区生育率下降的主要原因是三等和三等以上生育率的下降。甚至在生育率较低的地区,第一胎和第二胎都没有明显下降。除了讨论实质性结果外,本文还评论了NFHS数据的质量。

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