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Forecasting Gold Prices Based on Extreme Learning Machine

机译:基于极限学习机的黄金价格预测

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In recent years, the investors pay major attention to invest in gold market ecause of huge profits in the future. Gold is the only commodity which maintains ts value even in the economic and financial crisis. Also, the gold prices are closely elated with other commodities. The future gold price prediction becomes the warning ystem for the investors due to unforeseen risk in the market. Hence, an accurate gold rice forecasting is required to foresee the business trends. This paper concentrates on orecasting the future gold prices from four commodities like historical data’s of gold rices, silver prices, Crude oil prices, Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index (S&P500) ndex and foreign exchange rate. The period used for the study is from 1st January 000 to 31st April 2014. In this paper, a learning algorithm for single hidden layered eed forward neural networks called Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is used which as good learning ability. Also, this study compares the five models namely Feed orward networks without feedback, Feed forward back propagation networks, Radial asis function, ELMAN networks and ELM learning model. The results prove that he ELM learning performs better than the other methods.
机译:近年来,由于未来会有丰厚的利润,投资者非常关注黄金市场的投资。黄金是即使在经济和金融危机中也能保持其价值的唯一商品。此外,黄金价格与其他商品密切相关。由于市场上不可预见的风险,未来的黄金价格预测成为投资者的预警系统。因此,需要准确的金米预测以预测业务趋势。本文着重于预测四种商品的未来黄金价格,例如黄金大米的历史数据,白银价格,原油价格,标准普尔500指数(S&P500)ndex和汇率。本研究的时间为000年1月1日至2014年4月31日。在本文中,使用了一种称为“极进学习机”(ELM)的单隐藏分层eed前向神经网络学习算法,该算法具有良好的学习能力。此外,本研究还比较了五个模型,即无反馈的前馈网络,前馈传播网络,径向函数,ELMAN网络和ELM学习模型。结果证明,ELM学习的效果优于其他方法。

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