Application of CE-QUAL-W2 Model to Water Quality Simulation in Prespa Lakes

摘要

Prespa Lakes region is a good case study, as it is a wetland area of high biodiversity and long human history. The main features of this region are two lakes, which also give the name to the area: Macro Prespa and Micro Prespa, which lap the shores of the three countries (Albania, Macedonia and Greece) and connect them in this way symbolically. This region hosts unique habitats that are important from both regional and global conservation perspective, and populations of numerous rare, relict, endemic, endangered or threatened species. It is also remarkable for its cultural values, including Byzantine monuments and examples of traditional architecture. In Prespa, the coabidance between Man and Nature over the centuries has shaped and preserved a wealth of natural and cultural values that account for the area’s international importance. However, current resource management practices including water and land-use planning, agriculture, forestry and fisheries are failing to maintain and restore the health of ecosystems. The main goal of this study was to use a calibrated water quality model capable of predicting future water quality conditions resulting from potential changes in lakes operations and/or environmental conditions in Prespa Park region. In this study, CE-QUAL-W2, the two dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model, was used to simulate water quality in Prespa Lakes, for the years 2010 through 2013. The simulation of main water quality constituents: dissolved oxygen, total phosphorous and orthophosphate, ammonia and nitrate, algal biomass and chlorophyll a, and organic carbon cycle, was performed. The sample data for each water quality parameter was statistically analyzed. The CEQUAL- W2 model was able to accurately simulate water quality, with relative error of the mean less than 10%. Model results revealed that model calculated concentrations of key water quality indexes matched well with the measured values. The modeling results presented here provide a starting point for simulating the water quality in the Praspa Lakes. The results and conclusions from this study are not intended for use on Prespa Lakes alone. The concepts of model development can potentially be applied and also broaden its usefulness to other systems.