Spatiotemporal Relationship between Geodetic and Seismic Quantities: A Possible Clue to Preparatory Processes of M ≥ 6.0 Inland Earthquakes in Japan

摘要

Constructing a statistical model to characterize the physical conditions associated with large earthquake occurrence is crucial for disaster mitigation. With the aim to formulate such a model, we previously developed a statistical evaluation system which assesses the correlation of the spatiotemporal relationship between different kinds of physical quantities with the occurrence times of large inland earthquakes. In this study, we focused on assessing the relationship between geodetic and seismic quantities and attempted to find the pair of related quantities that most likely indicates preparatory processes of large earthquakes in Japan. We assessed the quantities prior to M ≥ 6.0 inland earthquakes for the period of 2001–2007 in terms of probability gains and error diagram. Our system revealed that the pair of absolute value of dilatation rate and seismic energy showed the highest statistical performance. Further validation of this result is required by updating the database of physical quantities.