Comparative Study of Land Use Change and Landslide Susceptibility Using Frequency Ratio, Certainty Factor, and Logistic Regression in Upper Area of Ujung-Loe Watersheds South Sulawesi Indonesia

摘要

The purpose of this study is to develop and apply land use change (LUC) as a novel causative factor to produce landslide susceptibility map (LSM) by using frequency ratio (FR), certainty factor (CF), and logistic regression (LR) models in a geographic information system environment. In the study area, Upper Area of Ujung-loe Watersheds area South Sulawesi Indonesia, landslides were derived from aerial photography from time series data image of Google Earth Pro~(TM )during 2012-2016 and field survey. LSM were built by using FR, CF, and LR with eleven causative factors. The results indicated that LUC affects landslide susceptibility in the study area according to FR and CF method. It can be inferred from the results of FR and CF, LUC has the highest value on both at LUC from primary forest to open area and paddy field, it was observed that the change vegetation type to another landscape destabilize slopes. However, in logistic regression method, LUC has on 5~(th )place from eleven causative factor, according to likelihood ratio test with chi-square value 85.065 after Slope, distance to river, distance to faults and aspect. Validation of landslide susceptibility was carried out by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Firstly, LR shows the highest accuracy in both success and predictive rate (85.6%). Secondly, the frequency of landslides in high to a very high class of susceptibility was calculated, which indicates the level of accuracy of the method. CF returns the highest accuracy of 85.28%.