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Calculation of Failure Probability of Series and Parallel Systems for Imprecise Probability

机译:不精确概率的串联和并联系统的失效概率计算

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In the situation that unit failure probability is imprecise when calculation the failure probability of system, classical probability method is not applicable, and the analysis result of interval method is coarse. To calculate the reliability of series and parallel systems in above situation, D-S evidence theory was used to represent the unit failure probability. Multi-sources information was fused, and belief and plausibility function were used to calculate the reliability of series and parallel systems by evidential reasoning. By this mean, lower and upper bounds of probability distribution of system failure probability were obtained. Simulation result shows that the proposed method is preferable to deal with the imprecise probability in reliability calculation, and can get additional information when compare with interval analysis method.
机译:在计算系统故障概率时单位故障概率不精确的情况下,经典概率法不适用,区间法的分析结果较粗糙。为了计算上述情况下串联和并联系统的可靠性,使用D-S证据理论来表示单元故障概率。融合了多源信息,并使用信念和似然函数通过证据推理来计算串联和并联系统的可靠性。以此方式,获得了系统故障概率的概率分布的上下限。仿真结果表明,该方法较好地解决了可靠性计算中的不精确概率问题,与区间分析方法相比,可以获得更多的信息。

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