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Mapping the Wind Hazard of Global Tropical Cyclones with Parametric Wind Field Models by Considering the Effects of Local Factors

机译:考虑局部因素影响的参数化风场模型绘制全球热带气旋的风灾

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Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause catastrophic loss in many coastal areas of the world. TC wind hazard maps can play an important role in disaster management. A good representation of local factors reflecting the effects of spatially heterogeneous terrain and land cover is critical to evaluation of TC wind hazard. Very few studies, however, provide global wind hazard assessment results that consider detailed local effects. In this study, the wind fields of historical TCs were simulated with parametric models in which the planetary boundary layer models explicitly integrate local effects at 1?km resolution. The topographic effects for eight wind directions were quantified over four types of terrain (ground, escarpment, ridge, and valley), and the surface roughness lengths were estimated from a global land cover map. The missing TC parameters in the best track datasets were reconstructed with local regression models. Finally, an example of a wind hazard map in the form of wind speeds under a 100-year return period and corresponding uncertainties was created based on a statistical analysis of reconstructed historical wind fields over seven of the world’s ocean basins.
机译:摘要热带气旋(TC)在世界许多沿海地区造成了灾难性的损失。 TC风灾图在灾害管理中可以发挥重要作用。反映空间异质地形和土地覆盖影响的局部因素的良好表示对于评估TC风灾危害至关重要。但是,很少有研究提供考虑详细局部影响的全球风灾评估结果。在这项研究中,使用参数模型模拟了历史TC的风场,其中行星边界层模型以1?km的分辨率明确整合了局部效应。在四种类型的地形(地面,悬崖,山脊和山谷)上量化了八个风向的地形影响,并根据全球土地覆盖图估算了表面粗糙度长度。最佳轨道数据集中缺失的TC参数使用局部回归模型进行了重建。最后,根据对世界上七个海盆的重建历史风场的统计分析,创建了一个风灾地图的示例,该风灾地图以100年回归期下的风速和相应的不确定性为基础。

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