A Computer Virus Propagation Model Using Delay Differential Equations with Probabilistic Contagion and Immunity

摘要

The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communaldiseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos typenetworks since they do not consider the varying probabilities of infection or immunity per node. In thispaper, we present the application and the simulation results of the pSEIRS model that takes into accountthe probabilities, and is thus suitable for more realistic scale free networks. In the pSEIRS model, the deathrate and the excess death rate are constant for infective nodes. Latent and immune periods are assumed tobe constant and the infection rate is assumed to be proportional to I (t) N(t) , where N (t) is the size of thetotal population and I(t) is the size of the infected population. A node recovers from an infectiontemporarily with a probability p and dies from the infection with probability (1-p).