Stochastic renewal process model for maintenance (case study: thermal electricity generation in Sudan)

摘要

The renewal process defines as a counting process where the times between the count renewals is a random variables and their distribution is identical. In the electricity generation machines there are spare parts replaced due to damage or expired and replacement process occur repeatedly and the renewal process of here assume that times between replacements are independent random variables and it has identical probability distribution. In this paper, renewal process model has applied on the time of fault for machine in Bahri Thermal Station for electricity generation, which is belong to the National Electricity Authority in Sudan during the period (2011-2015). Through the renewal process model estimation is clear that, the failure time (renewal) for the machines follow Weibull distribution with 2-parameters and when the time trend has been tested it is clear that no trend exist which mean that the renewal process represent Homogeneous Poisson Process (HPP), and the repair rate (renewal) is occurred constantly. In addition, the findings approve that whenever the repair rate (renewal) increase the mean time between failures (MTBF) increases too and this clear in machine no (6).