Investment Estimation of Telecommunication Industry in Japan: A Study in the Economics of Information Society

摘要

This work reports an estimate of demand for telecommunication services and an estimate of the investment cost of constructing telecommunication infrastructure in Japan for the period of 1996-2025. Economic models are formulated to describe main activities of the Japanese telecommunication industry including mobile communication, the Internet, Public Switched Telephone Network PSTN and Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network B-ISDN. Under a number of assumptions on macro economic and social indices, we make a forecast of the number of subscribers to telecommunication services, the amount of investment to satisfy the demand, the operating costs, the operating incomes and loses, and the cash-flow of the operator. Comparing some scenarios, we estimate the amount of public finance to promote the construction of the information infrastructure.