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A Nonlinear Dynamic Model of the Financial Crises Contagions

机译:金融危机蔓延的非线性动力学模型

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Employing the Differential Dynamics Method, a nonlinear dynamic model is set up to describe the international financial crises contagion within a short time between two countries. The two countries’ control force depending on the timely financial assistance, the positive attitude and actions to rescue other infected countries, and investor confidence aggregation, and the immunity ability of the infected country are considered as the major reasons to drive the nonlinear fluctuations of the stock return rates in both countries during the crisis. According to the Ordinary Differential Equations Qualitative Theory, we found that there are three cases of financial crises contagion within a brief time between two countries: weak contagion with instability but inhibition, contagion with limit and controllable oscillation, and strong contagion without control in a brief time.
机译:采用差分动力学方法,建立了一个非线性动力学模型来描述两个国家之间在短时间内国际金融危机的蔓延。两国的控制力量取决于及时的财政援助,挽救其他受感染国家的积极态度和采取的行动,投资者的信心积累以及受感染国家的免疫力,这是导致两国非线性波动的主要原因。危机期间两国的股票回报率。根据常微分方程定性理论,我们发现在两个国家之间的短时间内发生了三起金融危机蔓延的案例:弱势蔓延,不稳定但受抑制;蔓延有极限且可控制的震荡;以及强势蔓延而无人控制时间。

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