Influencia del ENSO en la variabilidad espacial y temporal de la ocurrencia de movimientos en masa detonados por lluvias en la región Andina

摘要

Landslides triggered by rain have caused many human and economic losses in Colombia, especially in the department of Antioquia. According to DesInventar database since 1900 until 2017, 3478 landslides were recorded in the territory of Antioquia and these have left over 2065 fatalities and 74654 damaged homes. This paper presents spatial and temporal rainfall variability and their relationship with historical landslides events under the influence of ENSO in the nine sub-regions of Antioquia. For this purpose, daily rainfall data obtained from 27 IDEAM weather station and 5368 landslides reported in SIMMA and DesInventar database were used in a time window analysis between 1985 and 2016 (32 years). Also, temporal analyses and correlations were performed in daily, monthly and annual scale. According to the results of this study, the occurrence of landslides exhibits bimodal behavior according to temporal rainfall variability, and the strong effect of the cold phase of the ENSO (La Ni?a) has a strong influence on them. Moreover, landslides showed significant sensitivity to the time-series of rainfall linked to the different sub-regions of Antioquia. The understanding of spatial-temporal rainfall variability in tropical mountains environments is a key element for an appropriate risk management and early warning system implementation and design for hydrometeorological hazards.