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Spatial–Temporal Variability of Hydrothermal Climate Conditions in the Yellow River Basin from 1957 to 2015

机译:1957年至2015年黄河流域热液气候条件的时空变化

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The Yellow River Basin has been affected by global climate change. Studying the spatial–temporal variability of the hydrothermal climate conditions in the Yellow River Basin is of vital importance for the development of technologies and policies related to ecological, environmental, and agricultural adaptation in this region. This study selected temperature and precipitation data observed from 118 meteorological stations distributed in the Yellow River Basin over the period of 1957–2015, and used the Mann–Kendall, Pettitt, and Hurst indices to investigate the spatial–temporal variability of the hydrothermal climate conditions in this area. The results indicated: (1) the annual maximum, minimum, and average temperatures have increased. The seasonal maximum, minimum, and average temperatures for the spring, summer, autumn, and winter have also increased, and this trend is statistically significant ( p 0.01) between 1957–2015. The rate of increase in the minimum temperature exceeded that of the maximum temperature, and diurnal warming was asymmetric. Annual precipitation and the total spring, summer, and autumn precipitations declined, while the total winter precipitation increased, although the trend was non-significant ( p 0.05). (2) Based on the very restrictive assumption that future changes will be similar to past changes, according to the Hurst index experiment, the future trends of temperature and precipitation in the Yellow River Basin are expected to stay the same as in the past. There will be a long-term correlation between the two trends: the temperature will continue to rise, while the precipitation will continue to decline (except in the winter). However, over the late stage of the study period, the trends slowed down to some extent.
机译:黄河流域受到全球气候变化的影响。研究黄河流域热液气候条件的时空变异性对于该地区与生态,环境和农业适应有关的技术和政策的发展至关重要。本研究选择了从1957年至2015年期间分布在黄河流域的118个气象站的温度和降水数据,并使用Mann-Kendall,Pettitt和Hurst指数调查了热液气候条件的时空变化在这方面。结果表明:(1)年度最高,最低和平均温度都有所增加。春季,夏季,秋季和冬季的季节最高,最低和平均温度也有所增加,并且这一趋势在1957年至2015年之间具有统计学意义(p <0.01)。最低温度的上升速度超过最高温度,并且昼夜升温是不对称的。年降水量和春季,夏季和秋季的总降水量减少,而冬季的总降水量增加,尽管这种趋势不明显(p> 0.05)。 (2)基于非常严格的假设,即未来的变化将与过去的变化相似,根据赫斯特指数实验,预计黄河流域的温度和降水的未来趋势将与过去保持不变。两种趋势之间存在长期相关性:温度将继续上升,而降水将继续下降(冬季除外)。但是,在研究阶段的后期,趋势有所减缓。

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