Sensitivity Study on High-Resolution WRF Precipitation Forecast for a Heavy Rainfall Event

摘要

A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for a heavy rainfall case is configured and the performance of the precipitation forecasting is evaluated. Sensitivity tests were carried out by changing the model configuration, such as domain size, sea surface temperature (SST) data, initial conditions, and lead time. The numerical model employs one-way nesting with horizontal resolutions of 5 km and 1 km for the outer and inner domains, respectively. The model domain includes the capital city of Seoul and its suburban megacities in South Korea. The model performance is evaluated via statistical analysis using the correlation coefficient, deviation, and root mean squared error by comparing with observational data including, but not limited to, those from ground-based instruments. The sensitivity analysis conducted here suggests that SST data show negligible influence for a short range forecasting model, the data assimilated initial conditions show the more effective results rather than the non-assimilated high resolution initial conditions, and for a given domain size of the forecasting model, an appropriate outer domain size and lead time of <6 h for a 1-km high-resolution domain should be taken into consideration when optimizing the WRF configuration for regional torrential rainfall events around Seoul and its suburban area, Korea.