Global Ethanol Mandates Provide Opportunities for U.S. Ethanol Exports

摘要

The United States is the world’s largest exporter of ethanol, providing 30 percent of global exports in 2016. Half of those exports went to countries that have historically imported ethanol from the United States (Brazil, Canada, and the European Union (EU). These countries have long-standing mandates to blend ethanol with gasoline for fuel use; however, they also have rules that have the potential to limit future U.S. ethanol exports. Canada and the EU have carbon emission standards that could block U.S. corn-based ethanol, while Brazil has recently implemented trade barriers primarily aimed at the United States. At the same time, however, an increasing number of countries have established mandates to raise their ethanol use. By 2016, the United States, Brazil, the EU, and 26 other countries had ethanol mandates, while others use ethanol without an official requirement. Many of these countries will have difficulty meeting ambitious mandates with domestic production. This suggests that the United States may have an opportunity to expand its ethanol exports to new markets.