Extremely high fertility of a sedentarized Bedouin clan in south Jordan: a genealogical-demographic approach to long-term change

摘要

A Bedouin-origin clan with extremely high fertility in south Jordan sedentarized in a village in 1948. In this paper, based on our genealogical-demographic data collected from this clan, we elucidate the long-term demographic change that this clan has undergone. Our results highlight differences in fertility indicators among the early (1950–1969), middle (1970–1989), and late (1990–2004) periods. In particular, the total marital fertility rate (TMFR) was 4.756, 9.852, and 9.146, respectively, and the total fertility rate (TFR) was 3.589, 7.214, and 5.189, respectively. Taking age-specific indicators into account, the increase in TFR or TMFR from the early to the middle periods was attributable to increased rates of childbirth among middle-aged and older women, presumably associated with improvements in maternal nutrition and increased demand for children as agriculture labor, while the decrease in TFR from the middle to the late periods was caused by a delay in females’ age at marriage and an increase in the number of unmarried females. The fertility of this clan has been high, especially in the late period, and it is estimated that its population will double by 2030, implying the urgent necessity to reduce fertility to prevent overpopulation that threatens the people’s subsistence adaptation.