Further Promotion of Quadratic Time-Varying Parameters Discrete Grey Model

摘要

Based on the reason that the traditional buffer operator cannot adjust the action intensity, this paper proposes a positive real order weakening buffer operator, which solves the disadvantage that the original operator cannot be fine-tuned, and is more suitable for real life systems. By defining positive real order weakening buffer operator and according to the combination number and the nature of gamma function, the two are connected, and the positive real order weakening buffer sequence is transformed by gamma function. Next a quadratic time-varying linear parameter grey discrete prediction model (QTDGM) is established by using the constructed positive real order weakening buffer operator. The iterative optimization method of simulation base value is given, and the optimization model is established and the solution algorithm is proposed. Finally, the steps of modeling and forecasting by using QDGM model are described. In the case of science popularization fund forecast and raw coal output forecast, QTDGM model shows superior prediction effect. The relative error of the model is 0.34% ～ 7% in the three cases, which is much lower than that of the model using integer order weakening buffer operator and also lower than that of the linear time-varying parameter grey discrete model. QTDGM is more suitable for complex sample systems.