Time Trend of the Suicide Incidence in India; a Statistical Modelling

摘要

Background: It is estimated that over 100,000 people die by suicide in India every year. India alone contributes to more than 10% of suicides in the world. The suicide rate in India has been increasing steadily and has reached 11.2 (per 100,000 of population) in 2011 registering 78% increase over the value of 1980 (6.3). Objective: Objective of the study was to forecasts the suicide incidence of India up to 2020. Material and Methods: Theoretical statistics was used for the statistical modelling of the retrospective data of suicide incidence data of 1989-2011 years collected from National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). Results: Using curve fitting method, Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound, Power and Exponential growth models were validated. Cubic Model was the best fitted model with R2>0.90, p<0.01. Suicide incidence of India has an increasing trend. In 2020, it is estimated that the suicide incidence of India will be 109814 with CI [ 86593, 133034] for male, 76224 with CI [55151, 97297] for female and 186038 with CI [145605, 226471] for total[both male and female]. Conclusion: Suicide incidence of India has an increasing trend. India requires the involvement of all governments and other organizations to contribute to the cause of suicide awareness and prevention through activities, events, conferences and campaigns to solve this public health problem.