Bayesian model averaging: An application to the determinants of airport departure delay in Uganda

摘要

Bayesian model averaging was employed to study the dynamics of aircraft departure delay based on airport operational data of aviation and meteorological parameters collected on daily basis for the period 2004 through 2008 in matrix X. Models were evaluated using the R programming language mainly to establish the combinations of variables that could formulate the best model through assessing their importance. Findings showed that out of the sixteen covariates, 62.5% were suitable for model inclusion to determine aircraft departure delay of which 40% exhibited negative coefficients. The following parameters were found to negatively affect departure delay; number of aircrafts that departed on time (-0.562), number of persons on board of the arriving aircrafts (-0.002), daily average visibility (-0.001) and year (-1.605). Comparison between Posterior Model Probabilities (PMP Exact) and that based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMP MCMC) revealed a high correlation (0.998; p<0.01).The study recommended the MCMC as providing a more efficient approach to modelling the determinants of aircraft departure delay at an airport.