Rice Green Revolution and Climatic Change in East Africa: An Approach from the Technical Efficiency of Rainfed Rice Farmers in Uganda

摘要

In East Africa where a drastic improvement in food security is an urgent need, rice, a non-traditional crop in most of countries in the region, has emerged as an important food crop that could extend the Green Revolution to the region following the introduction of New Rice for Africa (NERICA) in the early 2000s. Using data collected through a nationwide survey, this paper examines the possibility of rice green revolution by estimating the technical efficiency (TE) of rainfed rice farmers in Uganda and simulates how unfavorable climate changes affect it. The estimated stochastic frontier yield function showed that the mean TE was 65% for lowland and 60% for upland, and that the potential yield of rainfed rice cultivation was as high as 3 t·ha-1. However, the stochastic simulation of rainfall and rice yield revealed that unfavorable climate changes could erase the high potential in crop yield. Rainfed rice cultivation could be a leading sector for realizing Green Revolution in East Africa. It plays a critical role in this process to improve rice farmers’ TE, which is lower in the region than in Asia. Worsening climatic conditions, if occur, make this need even more imperative.