Real estate investment in seismically active regions: Feasibility assessment and decision making

摘要

Lots of major cities worldwide?are?located in the seismically active regions.?Due to natural disasters, the?profits?of real estate investment in these regions may be corroded.?This study proposed?a reliability-based decision making process for real estate investment in seismically active regions. Based on?the Monte Carlosimulation?technique?with net present value (NPV) as the indicator, a sampling process?was repeatedly performed to?construct the?relation curves?of?annual?rate of return?versus corresponding reliability for candidate investment?projects. Then, these curves were used as a tool to prioritize the projects and make decisions.?An example to demonstrate the?decision making?process and illustrate how to effectively?estimate?potential costs?to repair?earthquake?damages?was presented.?Key?words:?Real estate investment, feasibility assessment, decision making, net present value, reliability.