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How the information precision and the information frequency observed affect the stock market equilibrium

机译:观察到的信息精度和信息频率如何影响股票市场均衡

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The traditional model in the competitive stock market assumes that the observational frequency of information is uniform, and concludes that the stock market equilibrium price which aggregates market information provides a sufficient statistic reflecting all the private information in the market. However, we are the first to assume that the observational frequency of an information is not uniform. Actually, information is heterogeneous among market participants, and there is an information asymmetry among investors. The main purpose of this study is to explore the relationship among information precision, the observational frequency of information and the stock market equilibrium. The study analyze the determination of the price system in a competitive stock market, where there are l sources of information ? which are respectively observed f1, f2, …, fI times by risk-averse traders. Each informed investor uses information observed to form an estimate for the expected value of the firm’s true value, ?, and to make decisions to buy the shares to maximize his own expected utility, and hence, determine the stock market equilibrium. Our main findings are as follows: Firstly, we found that the competitive equilibrium price is equal to the rational expectations equilibrium price. Only when the observational frequencies of each piece of market information are equal, will the fully-informed equilibrium become a special case of competitive equilibrium. Secondly, we found that the market equilibrium price aggregates all the market information, contingent on each observational frequency and its precision. The market equilibrium condition and the expected utility depend not only on the realized information, but also on the observational frequency and the precision of information. The market equilibrium price will fully reflect the precision and the observational frequency of information about the future value of asset. The stock price response to an unexpected change of information is positively related to the observational frequency and the precision of that information. We found that, the heterogeneity of belief about the true value of the risky asset among investors will lead to different regimes of market equilibrium. Thirdly, when the observational frequency of each piece of market information is uniform, Grossman’s model (1976) is mathematically equivalent to a special case of our model, and the market equilibrium price could act as a sufficient statistic for all the private information about the intrinsic value of the risky asset. However, the observational frequencies of market information with asymmetry are usually not uniform such that traders still have an incentive to collect costly information. Finally, further research could investigate how accurate the market equilibrium price is as a sufficient statistic for all the market information.
机译:竞争性股票市场中的传统模型假设信息的观察频率是一致的,并得出结论,聚合市场信息的股票市场均衡价格提供了充分的统计信息,可以反映市场中的所有私人信息。但是,我们是第一个假设信息的观察频率不一致的人。实际上,信息在市场参与者之间是异质的,并且投资者之间存在信息不对称。本研究的主要目的是探讨信息精度,信息观察频率与股票市场均衡之间的关系。这项研究分析了竞争性股票市场中价格系统的确定,哪里有l个信息源?规避风险的交易者分别观察到f1,f2,…,fI次。每个知情的投资者都使用观察到的信息来形成对公司真实价值的预期价值的估计,并做出购买股票的决策,以最大化自己的预期效用,从而确定股市均衡。我们的主要发现如下:首先,我们发现竞争均衡价格等于理性预期均衡价格。只有当每条市场信息的观察频率相等时,充分知情的均衡才会成为竞争均衡的特例。其次,我们发现市场均衡价格汇总了所有市场信息,这取决于每个观察频率及其精确度。市场均衡条件和预期效用不仅取决于所实现的信息,还取决于观察频率和信息的准确性。市场均衡价格将充分反映有关资产的未来价值的信息的准确性和观察频率。股票价格对信息意外变化的响应与该信息的观察频率和精度成正比。我们发现,投资者对风险资产真实价值的信念异质性将导致市场均衡机制的不同。第三,当每条市场信息的观察频率一致时,Grossman模型(1976)在数学上等同于我们模型的一个特例,并且市场均衡价格可以作为所有关于内在价值的私人信息的充分统计量。风险资产的价值。但是,具有不对称性的市场信息的观察频率通常是不一致的,因此交易者仍然有动力收集昂贵的信息。最后,进一步的研究可以调查市场均衡价格作为所有市场信息的足够统计量的准确性。

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