Markov chain analysis of dry, wet weeks and statistical analysis of weekly rainfall for agricultural planning at Dhera, Central Rift Valley Region of Ethiopia

摘要

Knowledge of rainfall pattern is very important for making decision on crop planning and water management. In the present study, Markov Chain probability model was performed to explain the long term frequency behavior of wet or dry weather spells during the main rainy season at Dhera, Central Rift Valley Region of Ethiopia. The study used 24 years (1984-2010) of rainfall data and weekly rainfall data was considered as standard to study the probabilities of occurrences of dry and wet weeks. Some reasonable and significant conclusions regarding specific time for land preparation, supplementary irrigation and soil conservation measures were obtained. The main rainy season starts on the 26th week (25th June - 1st July) and remains active upto the 40th week (1st - 7th October) this shows a total of 105 days of main rainy season that could occur. The coefficients of variation at the onset and withdrawal week are 69.4 and 99.2% respectively for the study site during the main rainy season. The probability of occurrences of initial and conditional probability is more than 50% on the 26th week at 10 mm per week threshold limit and 28th week at 20 mm per week threshold limit, therefore land preparation for planting could be undertaken in 26th and 28th weeks respectively for the main rainy season crop cultivation. Initial and conditional probabilities at 20 mm threshold limit per week showed that, supplementary irrigation and moisture conservation practice need to be practiced between 38th and 40th week for short duration crops and if the crop duration extend after 40th week it’s evident that supplementary irrigation is needed. In addition, harvesting runoff water for supplementary irrigation and construction of soil erosion measures need to be practiced between 28th and 33rd weeks for better rain water management.